Less Traffic, More AI: Why Google Discover is Putting Pressure on Publishers
At Upscore GmbH, we are currently seeing a surge of attention around the topic: "AI is now coming to Google Discover 😱" Here are some initial insights from Joachim Dreykluft (Head of Data & AI Strategies at Upscore):
Google's "AI Overview" was launched in March in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and other European countries. The delay compared to the U.S. was ten months. Over there, publishers are reporting that search traffic has dropped by around one-third since its introduction. In my view, we can expect a similar development in Europe — just with a time lag. Some U.S. publishers even believe that their search traffic will eventually drop to zero.
But it's important to note that a good half of today's search traffic doesn't come from Google Search itself, but from Google Discover. This raises the big question: Is AI coming to Discover too? The answer, as of the past few days, is yes. So what does that mean?
Up until now, the Discover feed has featured three types of cards: "regular", that link directly to the original article,"Showcase" cards from publishers with paid agreements with Google, and "advertising cards", which for me now appear every third to fifth post.
Now, Google is introducing a new type called "Trending". That much is certain. What is uncertain is how and how often Google will use these Trending cards. Will regular cards continue to dominate, or will they gradually be replaced? That's the key question, because it will determine how much reach publishers might lose on Discover. Yes, Trending cards can also link to publisher websites, but we shouldn't count on them as reliable traffic sources.
The honest answer is: we don’t know. We also don't know when these changes will roll out in Europe — but we should probably expect a shorter delay than the ten months we saw with AI Overview. There's a chance that "Trending" will simply be mixed in with the existing cards rather than replacing them entirely. If that’s the case, the impact may be limited.
In the worst-case scenario, "Trending" could come to dominate or even replace Discover. This would give Google another opportunity to present itself as an AI powerhouse alongside players like OpenAI. But it could also put current advertising revenues from the Discover feed at risk.
My take: don't panic. Keep optimizing for Discover. It still provides not just traffic but also brand visibility. At the same time, be prepared for a future where direct and internal traffic become the dominant sources. Strong brand awareness will be an essential prerequisite for that future.
Joachim Dreykluft is Head of Data & AI Strategies bei Upscore
Sources:
The first appearance of “Trending” around three weeks ago: https://www.discoversnoop.com/blog/2025/google-quietly-testing-ai-overviews-in-discover/
The TechCrunch article everyone’s talking about right now: https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/15/google-discover-adds-ai-summaries-threatening-publishers-with-further-traffic-declines/
A video on “X” showing how “Trending” links to publisher content. https://x.com/AndellDam/status/1944884378800136245